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Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just the winner citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of votes that came in after that and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where election day went kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year backed Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I figured it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I wish he does because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. But overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the election we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. So it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.