From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”