🔗 Share this article

Initially, Trump seemed to adopt a strong approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "significant consequences" in August if Vladimir Putin continued hindering truce discussions, he eventually imposed major sanctions on the Russian biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially impacted the Russian leader's capability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

However, with his latest detailed peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly created by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU involvement, he has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's initiative would effectively reward Putin for invading a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although strong statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative actually undermine that essential sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate past, Trump persists to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, as if giving Russia a part of Ukraine's territory will appease the president. But, Putin's war is not merely about occupying a charred region of deindustrialized land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to eliminate it so it no longer functions as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that Putin's increasing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

While keeping in position the presently separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would force Ukraine to give up all of this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding Russia with area that its troops have been failed to capture in more than a ten years of conflict, this surrender would make Ukrainian defenses severely undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that represent a critical barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, providing Putin a open path to Kyiv if he later choose to renew the war.

Military Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate additional conflict easier for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the size of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's plan places no similar constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's attempts to characterize the nation's legitimate leadership as Nazis, the plan asserts: "All extremist belief system and activities must be condemned and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this element, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump places no obligation that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding elections in Russia.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the proposal includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has violated similar accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to honor the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a return of captured territory in the region to the government – for what reason should anyone have confidence in Putin this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western protection assurances. Although the initiative promises a "strong joint armed reaction" if Russia resume its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics range from vague to alarming. The plan would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Russia from restoring his weakened forces, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

Another parallel deal according to sources would grant the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and sustained aggression" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a armed reaction. However unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary defense against renewed hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to respond militarily to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not